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George Kittle

George Kittle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-345).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -332 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -345.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.

George Kittle has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.3% since the start of last season, which places him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.

George Kittle has accrued a monstrous 55.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among tight ends.

George Kittle's 49.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 96th percentile for TEs.

The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 57.0 plays per game.

The Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 3rd-least TDs through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.20 per game since the start of last season.

The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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