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George Kittle

George Kittle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+132/-187).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +207 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

George Kittle has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.2% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.

George Kittle has accrued a whopping 58.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among tight ends.

George Kittle's 51.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 98th percentile for tight ends.

The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

George Kittle ranks in the 89th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.35 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 61.5 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.

The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 3rd-least touchdowns through the air in football to tight ends: 0.21 per game since the start of last season.

The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 5th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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