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George Kittle

George Kittle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+355/-697).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -664 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -697.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

George Kittle has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.6% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs.

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

George Kittle ranks in the 95th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.40 per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 10th-highest Completion% in football (75.2%) to tight ends this year (75.2%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

George Kittle has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).

George Kittle's 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 46.2.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to pass rush.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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