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George Kittle

George Kittle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 11

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+161/-232).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +217 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +161.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in football.

George Kittle has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.5% this year, which puts him in the 89th percentile among TEs.

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

George Kittle has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in a stellar 78.0% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 78th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.

George Kittle has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).

George Kittle's 38.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 51.7.

More George Kittle Player Props

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