Geoff Swaim Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Geoff Swaim

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Geoff Swaim Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+111/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -147.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
Geoff Swaim has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among tight ends, catching an impressive 80.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 91st percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace among all games this week, averaging 27.47 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Tennessee Titans O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.