Geoff Swaim Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Geoff Swaim

NFL · Player Props

Geoff Swaim

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Geoff Swaim Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
Geoff Swaim's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 81.3% to 85.7%.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the most receiving yards per game in football (63.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Geoff Swaim has been among the bottom TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 3.68 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 15th percentile.

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