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Geno Smith

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a -5-point underdog in this game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (60.3% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.

Geno Smith has attempted 40.8 passes per game this year, ranking in the 97th percentile when it comes to QBs.

Geno Smith's passing precision has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 65.3% to 70.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 126.2 plays on offense run: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the San Francisco 49ers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.8 per game) this year.

When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Seahawks grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in football vs. the 49ers defense this year (68.2% Adjusted Completion%).

The 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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