Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Cleveland Browns · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (62.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With a stellar 69.5% Adjusted Completion% (91st percentile) this year, Geno Smith ranks among the most accurate QBs in football.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (only 56.3 per game on average).
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 27.3 per game) this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest clip in football against the Browns defense this year (59.4% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the fierce Cleveland Browns defense has conceded a puny 1.00 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-best rate in the league.

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