Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Geno Smith's throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 69.4% to 72.6%.
Geno Smith has been among the best TD throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.74 per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (74.5%).

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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