Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-175).

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Seahawks being a heavy -7-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seahawks to pass on 63.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

With a 50.4% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-least pass-centric team in football in this setting has been the Seattle Seahawks.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are anticipated by the model to run just 61.5 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 56.0 plays per game.
Geno Smith's passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 66.2%.
The 49ers defense has allowed the 7th-fewest passing TDs in football: 1.10 per game this year.

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