Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
The predictive model expects Geno Smith to throw 35.8 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in football.

Favors Under

Geno Smith's 66.4% Adjusted Completion% this year marks an impressive regression in his passing precision over last year's 69.4% figure.
This year, the fierce Rams defense has conceded a paltry 66.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-best rate in the league.
The Rams defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest passing TDs in the NFL: 1.00 per game this year.

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