Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (62.9% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Seattle Seahawks.
The projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.
This year, the weak Washington Commanders defense has given up a monstrous 2.11 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the largest rate in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Washington's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The Seahawks have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.8 plays per game.

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