Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 37.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in the NFL versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year (63.3%).
The New Orleans Saints defense has yielded the 2nd-least TDs through the air in the league: 0.75 per game this year.
The New Orleans Saints safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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