Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-185).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Geno Smith's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.8% to 80.5%.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the NFL versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season (73.3%).
The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 4th-most passing TDs in the league: 1.89 per game since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 5th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 31.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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