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Geno Smith

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 19

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -275.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Seahawks are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

Geno Smith has been among the most accurate passers in the league this year with a stellar 69.6% Completion%, ranking in the 100th percentile.

Geno Smith has been among the best touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 1.76 per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 36.0 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.

The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 5th-least passing touchdowns in football: 1.18 per game this year.

The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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