Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-106/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
Geno Smith has been among the most on-target QBs in the NFL this year with a stellar 70.2% Completion%, checking in at the 97th percentile.
Geno Smith has been among the top touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 1.81 per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the NFL against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (72.0%).
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.