Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Geno Smith has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a terrific 70.9% Completion%, ranking in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the league vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (68.2%).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football: 0.92 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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