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Geno Smith

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -185 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.1% pass rate.

Geno Smith's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.8% to 72.2%.

Geno Smith has been among the top TD passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 1.83 per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (74.2%).

The Carolina Panthers cornerbacks rank as the 5th-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.

The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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