Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-153/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -144 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -153.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.38 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Geno Smith's passing accuracy has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.8% to 72.4%.
Geno Smith has been among the top touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 1.73 per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.