Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per play.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Geno Smith's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 68.8% to 72.5%.
Geno Smith has been among the leading touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 1.70 per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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