Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+175/-235).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Geno Smith has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a stellar 68.8% Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 33.9 passes this week, on average: the least of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.

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