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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 130.8 plays on offense called: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.

Geno Smith has been a much bigger part of his team's running game this year (14.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (8.2%).

Geno Smith has run for a lot more yards per game (22.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).

Geno Smith's rushing effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 7.67 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a mere 5.63 figure last season.

This year, the anemic Los Angeles Rams run defense has allowed a monstrous 143.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 7th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Seahawks as the 7th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 39.2% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume.

With a dreadful tally of 1.18 yards-after-contact (24th percentile), Geno Smith rates among the weakest rushing quarterbacks in football this year.

The Rams defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year in regard to run defense.

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