Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+107/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Geno Smith has averaged 3.3 rush attempts per game this year, one of the highest rates in the NFL among quarterbacks (78th percentile).
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (17.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (9.9% in games he has played).
Geno Smith has averaged 19.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in football among QBs (78th percentile).

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.4 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Geno Smith has been among the worst QBs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 0.37 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 10th percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.