Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+102/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (16.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (10.2% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Geno Smith has been among the bottom QBs in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 0.35 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 17th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.