Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (16.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.2% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Geno Smith has been among the bottom quarterbacks in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a measly 0.29 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 14th percentile.