Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-119/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
Geno Smith has been much more involved in his team's rushing attack this year (11.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (3.2%).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (140 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Geno Smith's running efficiency (2.66 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (13th percentile among quarterbacks).
Geno Smith has been among the weakest QBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a measly 0.40 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 15th percentile.

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