Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-105/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to earn 4.8 carries in this contest, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (17.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.0% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 7th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 35.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in run blocking.
Opposing offenses have run for the 10th-least yards in the league (just 113 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year with their run defense.

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