Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Jets · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to total 4.2 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (16.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.1% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 7th-least run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 35.6% run rate.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.2 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
The New York Jets defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding just 4.16 yards-per-carry.