Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to accumulate 4.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (18.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.1 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line grades out as the worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 107 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.