Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-103/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to accrue 4.1 carries in this contest, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (17.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.4% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.8 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in run blocking.

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