Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to earn 5.2 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (18.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.3% in games he has played).
Geno Smith has grinded out 21.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in football among QBs (76th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-least run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 37.0% run rate.
Geno Smith has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging just 0.67 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 15th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.