Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to total 4.9 carries in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (17.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).
Geno Smith has picked up 21.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (78th percentile).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends project as the 3rd-worst DE corps in the league this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Geno Smith has been among the worst quarterbacks in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 0.66 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 17th percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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