Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (11.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.2% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 40.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.