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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (11.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.2% in games he has played).
  • The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 40.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
  • The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

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