Geno Smith Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-995).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most TDs in the NFL (1.12 per game) versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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