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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 7

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+425/-950).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +437 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +425.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.3 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (16.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (22.2% in games he has played).

The Seattle Seahawks O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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