Geno Smith Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 4, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+422/-940).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +440 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +422.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.38 seconds per snap.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Opposing squads have run for the 8th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.64 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.