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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 12

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+399/-848).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +411 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +399.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per play.

The Las Vegas Raiders safeties profile as the 30th-worst safety corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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