Geno Smith Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Passing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 245.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 254.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 245.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Geno Smith's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.8% to 72.3%.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.