Geno Smith Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Passing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 266.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 261.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 266.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Geno Smith's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.8% to 74.6%.
Geno Smith has been among the best per-play QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.97 yards-per-target while checking in at the 84th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest rate in the league versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (73.7%).

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.