Geno Smith Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Completions

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 7, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-135/+104).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Seattle Seahawks.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may go down.
In this game, Geno Smith is anticipated by the model to average the 9th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 34.9.
Geno Smith's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a noteworthy improvement in his passing precision over last year's 65.3% figure.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on running than their standard approach.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New York's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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