Geno Smith Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Completions

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 1:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-119/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (62.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Seahawks.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower run volume.
Geno Smith has been one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with an exceptional 69.2% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL against the Cardinals defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Arizona's group of CBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 8.5 points.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see just 127.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.

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