Geno Smith Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Completions

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Geno Smith's throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 69.4% to 72.6%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (74.5%).

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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