Geno Smith Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are big underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 66.7% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
This week, Geno Smith is expected by the predictive model to average the 5th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.1.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 8th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Seahawks this year (a measly 55.8 per game on average).
Geno Smith's passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 65.5%.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, San Francisco's unit has been great this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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