Geno Smith Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+116/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Geno Smith has been among the most accurate passers in the league this year with a stellar 69.6% Completion%, ranking in the 100th percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 36.0 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.