Geno Smith Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.18 seconds per snap.
While Geno Smith has garnered 4.5% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Seattle's run game in this week's contest at 13.0%.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Cincinnati's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seahawks to run on 39.9% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Geno Smith has averaged a mere 1.0 rush attempts per game this year, one of the lowest rates in the league among QBs (9th percentile).
As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the impact it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Seahawks ranks as the 4th-worst in the league last year.

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