Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 3:31 PM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New York Jets.
The model projects Garrett Wilson to accrue 8.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The Jets offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Garrett Wilson's 6.7 adjusted catches per game this year represents a substantial progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 5.6 rate.
Garrett Wilson's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 58.8% to 62.9%.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Jets being a 3-point favorite in this game.
The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
While Garrett Wilson has been responsible for 30.1% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of New York's passing offense in this week's contest at 24.7%.

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