My Account Log Out

reorder

Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -10-point disadvantage, the Jets are massive underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 62.9% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.0 per game) this year.

The model projects Garrett Wilson to notch 9.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 6th-best in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 127.0 total plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

The Jets have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Garrett Wilson's 66.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 76.5.

More Garrett Wilson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™