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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Rams

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see 133.4 total plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.

The predictive model expects Garrett Wilson to garner 9.4 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a mere 55.6 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Los Angeles Rams, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.5 per game) this year.

Garrett Wilson's 68.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 76.5.

The Rams pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (57.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (57.9%).

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