Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are an enormous 8.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Garrett Wilson has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, hauling in just 61.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 19th percentile among wide receivers
The Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the best CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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