My Account Log Out

reorder

Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-174/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -174.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Trevor Siemian.

This week's line implies an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are huge -7-point underdogs.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Jets to pass on 61.3% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call 66.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.

Garrett Wilson has run fewer routes this year (97.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (86.4%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing offenses teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Browns, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 32.3 per game) this year.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

With a feeble 59.1% Adjusted Catch% (23rd percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places as one of the worst possession receivers in football among wideouts.

This year, the tough Browns defense has yielded a meager 53.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the best rate in football.

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Cleveland's unit has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 10th-best in the league.

More Garrett Wilson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™